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China’s ‘unusual’ nuclear pact with Ukraine’s Yanukovich
After Russia sent troops into Ukraine's Crimea region in defiance of the West, Moscow reached out to China for international support. But while Russia says China is in agreement over Ukraine, Beijing has remained largely silent publicly and, analysts say, will likely remain so.
That silence may be due to a recent deal that ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich signed with Chinese President Xi Jinping — to bring Ukraine under China's nuclear umbrella.
On Dec. 5, two months before Yanukovich was dismissed by his nation’s parliament, Xi and Yanukovich signed the accord, which one participating Chinese official indicated to state media amounted to $10 billion and included an “unusual” nuclear clause. In the event of a nuclear attack or so much as the threat of one, China would offer Kiev military support.
Yet the pact seems to reveal more about Beijing's various territorial disputes in Asia than it does about China's ties with Russia.
China has in fact penned a slew of multi-billion-dollar agreements with leaders who have since been unseated or debilitated by popular revolt in countries like Libya, Syria and now Ukraine, costing China both financially and in terms of influence.
Amid Russia's incursions into Crimea, it's unclear whether China will strengthen ties with Russia. But after a series of unfortunate contracts with toppled Arab Spring leaders and now Yanukovich, some China watchers have expressed hopes that China will stop aligning itself with nations threatened by political instability.
"China is trying to position itself in the world today as a major economic and political player. I believe that China will play a very sensitive and long-term card in dealing with those countries that had political and social crises like Libya and Syria," said Dong Qingwen, communications professor and Chinese media analyst at the University of the Pacific.
It's a tall order for a nation that has attempted to brand itself since its 1949 inception as aligning with developing nations, some of which have since developed entrenched dictatorial administrations.
An ‘unusual’ nuclear umbrella
And so it is, analysts say, that Xi's deal with Ukraine deal was really aimed at asserting power over China's adversaries in ongoing territorial disputes with Japan and South Korea.
“That’s unusual for China. China never goes that far to interfere with political issues in Europe,” Austria-based Chinese political analyst and international relations professor Yu Ligong told Al Jazeera.
China has long sought to cast off its no-first-use policy on nuclear weapons, and some have said this shift has invited ongoing tensions with less-equipped military powers in the region. China has the second-largest defense budget in the world behind the U.S., and Beijing announced Wednesday its defense spending increased by 12.2 percent to $132 billion, though that is still just one-fifth of the U.S.'s defense budget.
Yu said the “nuclear umbrella” pact with Kiev was designed to send a message to Japan, amid ongoing disputes over the Diaoyu-Senkaku Islands, and Southeast Asian rivals in disputes in the South China Sea.
“Through this agreement with Ukraine, China wanted to paint a new face: ‘We won’t apply nuclear weapons, but we are a nuclear power. You should not forget.’ It’s a way to show muscle,” Yu said.
The message appeared to have fallen on deaf ears. Chinese media published countless articles on the agreement, but the deal got little play in the international media, Lu noted. And little over a month later, at Davos, it appeared Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hoped to move international support against what Tokyo says is Chinese aggression in the Pacific.
Quiet diplomacy
For now it appears China's involvement with Kiev stops at its "unusual" cooperative agreement with Ukraine’s old regime.
Though Moscow still seems to think otherwise. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, after a call with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that the two were largely "in agreement" over Moscow's inroads in post-Yanukovich Ukraine, according to a report from Sky News. But China has offered no direct sign of support for Russia.
“China is walking a fine line,” said Jie Dalei, Peking University international relations professor.
AW: Krisenherd Ukraine
