But rather than suggest Delta is displaying a worrying ability to evade the vaccine and cause severe illness, scientists say those figures support the shots’ effectiveness. There are three main reasons why.
First, vaccines aren’t 100% effective. Not everyone who is inoculated will respond in the same way. Those who are elderly or whose immune systems are faulty, damaged or stressed by some other illness are less likely to mount a robust response than someone younger and fitter. Covid-19 vaccines are highly effective but some people will still be vulnerable to the virus even after receiving their shots.
Second, the risk of dying from Covid-19 increases steeply with age. If a vaccine reduces an 80-year-old’s risk of death from Covid-19 by 95%, for instance, that 80-year-old’s risk of death might still be greater than the risk faced by an unvaccinated 20-year-old. Some chronic illnesses such as diabetes, hypertension and lung disease are also associated with a higher risk of severe illness and death.
Third, as more of the population gets vaccinated, there are fewer unvaccinated people for the virus to infect. If the pool of vaccinated people is larger than the pool of unvaccinated people, then it is possible and even likely that breakthrough infections resulting in death in the older, vaccinated group would match or exceed deaths in the younger, unvaccinated group. Consider an imaginary country with 100% of people vaccinated, where the virus can still somehow spread. All Covid-19 deaths would be in vaccinated individuals.
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The data show there were 59 over-50s among the 117 deaths who hadn’t received two vaccine doses. Assuming a take-up rate of the vaccine of 95%, in line with the rates seen among the oldest age groups in Britain, that implies some 1,180 people might have died from Covid-19 in the absence of vaccination. Ninety-five percent of that number—1,121—would have occurred in those who are now fully protected. Since only 50 deaths occurred in that group, that implies vaccines reduced the risk of death by 95%.
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